Survivor 30: Worlds Collide

The next episode of the show will be the merge, so heading into said merge, let's recap which players and alliances have the best shot at going deep into the game. 

First of all, coming off of a swapped tribe, we have Boston Rod. This guy is truly unbelievable. Not only does he have an accent that sounds made-up (he wants to buy a Caaa for his Maaa and he'll manipulate Gaaals to win the Gaaaaame), but his confidence and feisty attitude are propelling him to the forefront of the edit. Up until the most recent episode however, he's been un-foil-able, Rod's biggest problem is his ego. Thus far, whether you think he's the world's largest douche or not, Rod has actually played fairly well. He made himself the majority alliance, he manipulated several inside allies, and other than the occasional yelling match, was on top. However, once the tribes merged and Rodney met Joaquin, things got odd. Suddenly, it was When Harry Met Sally. As Rod himself said, they're both from the east coast, they're both "about gaaals," and they're both "about not settlin' down!" Immediately, Rod and Joaq were a power couple - two guys trying to bro down and vote out all those pesky women that were always flirting with them. 

Thus, the rest of the tribe banned together to blindside Joaquin (Not Phoenix) and split up the power couple. Where Rod goes from here will be very interesting. Will he be a "free agent" like Ozzy? Will he immediately rejoin Blue Collar and lick his wounds in silence? Either way, his neck is right out in the open. Rodney is a lesson to all bros to play the game. Get the gaals, sure. Get the bros, sure. But make it ridiculously obvious that you're doing it? Doom is in the making. 

On the other side of the game, we have Jenn, Haley, and Will - the three No Collars still on the same tribe. Of the three, Jenn has had the biggest edit, getting to narrate most of the show. Haley seems to be a sweethearted lackey, and Will is just impressive that he's still in the game given his terrible physicality. Upon entrance into the merge, they'll rejoin with the last No Collar, Joe (or as I like to call him, stupid Malcolm Freburg.) This foursome has the potential to make it very far in the game - especially Jenn, Joe, and Haley. 

However, while the Blue Collar tribe is mostly split up, with Rod and Sierra being a bit pissy at the three others, the No Collars are on great terms. In addition, they seem to have pulled over Carolyn to their alliance, adding another number. Should they grab Tyler upon entrance into the merge and deal with Shirin enough to use her vote, that'll be the overwhelming majority. On the other hand, if Rod, Sierra, and Tyler side with Blue Collar and swing Carolyn, No Collar is done-for. 

Speaking of Shirin, Tyler, and Carolyn, let's talk about the remaining white collars! Carolyn is the most interesting of the three, being both an older woman (something that usually paints a target on one's back) and an idol-holder. Instead of playing a Dawn Meehan and guilting people into manipulation, Carolyn seems old school. She makes alliances, she sticks with them, and when it's time to cut and run, she does so. The question though, is where her allegiance lies in the merge. Tyler and she were tight, but it seems that Tyler was allied with Rod and maybe the blue collars? Carolyn banned together with No Collars to boot out Max (not the Sultan of Television version,) meaning that she could potentially stay with them upon merge. 

Then there's the elusive Tyler. From early game, Tyler was one of my picks to win it all. He seemed smart, athletic, and composed enough to not make a complete Rodney of himself. Even if the edit doesn't show him much, I'm a fan. He is another one that could go either way come merge time. Will he stick with his Blue Collar allies (though he could be alienated as a result of the Joaq boot) or will he swap over to Carolyn's No Collar friends? 

Finally, we come to Shirin. Yikes. There's rarely a player that annoys me this much, even in the ten or so minutes of screen-time they get per episode. Unsurprisingly, people that have to spend 24 hours a day with the woman (people not named Max... Dawson,) are also quite sick of her. She's so annoying in fact, that she and Max (NOT ME! DAWSON!) were betrayed by Carolyn almost immediately, resulting in Max's boot. The question with Shirin is where her loyalty lies, and just how smart she really is. As a superfan, it can be assumed she knows the game well, (though not social strategy) so one would assume she would make a plea to a majority alliance. Perhaps Blue Collar would take her in? On the other hand, if she can somehow become less annoying and fly under the radar, much like Sandra, perhaps she could skirt to the end. 

Finally, we come to the real blue collars: Mike, Dan, and Kelly. Mike is my pick to win the game. The guy has a fantastic edit, a very solid alliance, and is quite solid physically. Plus, if he sticks with his two major allies (Dan and Kelly), he is by far the most likely to win. The only one that thinks he's untrustworthy is Rod (and let's be honest, his reasoning is amazing. Mike goes to Church, doesn't have sex, and is a genuinely nice person. How untrustworthy!) And it wouldn't be too hard to sway over Tyler, Sierra, and therefor maybe Carolyn. If Mike plays it correctly, he should have a clear shot to victory.

Dan on the other hand, will have a rocky time to that grail. His thesis statement upon entry into the game was "I will be remembered, no matter what." And thus far, he's been doing just that; making himself remembered. However, it looks as if Dan is playing a game to be remembered and invited back... not exactly to win. He tells loud stories, tells Rod his mother is a whore, and loses his man-thong mysteriously in the ocean. Now, logic will dictate that this is a terrible way to go about winning. However, Dan has a shot at victory if he is able to be taken along as an alliance member until Final Four and then cut the leader. If he plays a Stephen Fishbach game where he boots J.T. right before the end and then makes a fantastic argument for his strategy, Dan could pull it out. 

Finally, there's Kelly. I don't want to compare her to the infamous Purple Kelly, but edit wise, they're pretty similar. Now, since Kelly has never been edited negatively, I won't count her out just yet, but usually we at least hear from a winner occasionally. I won't be surprised if Kelly makes a deep run based on her alliance, but the win seems quite unlikely. 

Overall, the thirtieth anniversary season of Survivor has been a fun ride thus far. There's already been blindsides, huge characters, and a twist looms in the distance, said to shake the game to its core. Whether it can outdo the quality of season 28 remains to be seen, as no Tony Vlachos is here to make even the most boring of boots entertaining, but it's going as strong as ever. The merge usually only promotes more momentum in the strategy and fun of the show, so I expect shit to go down sooner rather than later. 

As a final note, here is my order for likelihood to win. Number 1 is most likely, number 12 is least.  

1. Mike "His God's Beard Made a Fire" Holloway

2. Hali "Law Student Yet Still No Collar" Ford

3. Tyler "Why the Fuck is Max and Shirin naked?" Fredrickson

4. Joe... err Malcolm? Anglim

5. Dan "I'll be Back" Foley

6. Jenn "I was a top pick to win until I said 'Why does everyone take this game so seriously?'" Brown

7. Carolyn "Idol on day one..." Rivera

8. Shirin "Just... just... stop" Oskooi

9. Kelly "Blue Kelly?" Remington

10. Will "Where are those sandwiches, by the way?" Sims

11. Boston Rod "Fast Caas, Attractive Maas, and East Coast Gaaals" Lavoie

12. Sierra "Tall, hot, and invisible" Dawn Thomas