Max - Sultan of Television: Survivor 30: Worlds Approach

Let's start with where the drama begins: Shirin Oskooi. When the game started, Shirin was one of my true least favorites. She and Max (someone I desperately wanted to like and just... couldn't,) ran around naked, talked about survivor's astrological signs, and generally just alienated their tribe. The fact that it made me root for Joaquin was somewhat of an achievement on their part. Shirin knew the game, but she just seemed so caught up in being there with Jeff Probst and being on TV that her strategy came second. However, as the game went on, though personally I'm still not rooting for her, the editors seemed to start clicking with her. No longer was Shirin the annoyance, but the root-for-able underdog. When Dan exploded on her, his point of view was barely seen. When Will exploded on her, it was Shirin who was shown to be sympathetic. I'm not condoning either Will or Dan's actions out there, it was terrible gameplay, but it can be assumed that had their confessionals been shown, they may have had more valid reasons to do what they did.

The way I'd assess Shirin at this point is more convoluted than before. I'm personally not an enormous fan of her, but she seems to finally be grasping strategy. With all three No Collars being Pagonged, Shirin's alliance is essentially just herself and Mike. This, however unlikely it may be, is actually a good position for her. There's no way in hell that she's targeted over Mike, and with strategists like Tyler and Carolyn playing as well as they are, the annoying antithesis of physical threat Shirin isn't public enemy #1. People like Mike and Rodney are much bigger threats. Thus, while I'm on team Tyler/Carolyn (Tarolyn?), Shirin's game isn't quite as terrible as I once said.

Speaking of Mike, let's talk about the raspy voiced wonder. This week at the auction, Mike had one of the better Survivor moments in recent memory. After everyone being offered to buy a letter from a loved one for $20, Mike insisted that he buy last, and then turned right around to use his full $500 to buy the advantage in the game (more on that in a minute). However, after Carolyn and Dan starting flipping shit and Carolyn brought up the possibility of returning her letter, Mike went to buy a letter after all and draw rocks for the advantage.
I LOVED THIS MOVE!

Honestly, the only reason I didn't love this any more is because Mike didn't pull the trigger. He had done the damage just by showing what he'd do to pull out a win, and then seemingly sheathed his sword instead of going ahead and stabbing. While a terrible social move, completely ousting your own trust for what he probably thought would be a challenge advantage, Mike showed the killer instinct that makes a great survivor. This was a page right out of someone like Brian Heidik, Tony Vlachos, or even the great Richard Hatch's book.

With eight left though, Mike Holloway is obviously the biggest threat. He's dominant in the challenges without Joe around, he's playing the hardest out of anyone left in the game, and should he make it to the end, he should be a shoe-in to win it all. He can go several directions from here. One could draw a parallel to Tom Westman should Mike go on an immunity run and win. One could draw a parallel to Terry Dietz if he goes on an immunity run a tribal council too short. However, if I was to guess Mike's path to victory, it would have to be more subtle. We all know that the more challenges he wins, the bigger target he becomes. One idol is a good start, but if Mike is to win, he needs to use charisma. Tyler seems to be the smartest player in the game from a pure strategic standpoint. Mike needs to oust this. Convince Dan, Will, and Sierra that Tyler and Carolyn will run this game if they're not disposed of. Get them to vote with himself and Shirin just once, suddenly flipping the game back in his favor. From there, some effective idol play, and herding Shirin and Dan to the final three will all but guarantee his victory. However, let himself fall victim to the erratic schemes of Rodney, the calculated ones of Tyler, or the anger fueled ones of Will, and Mike will find himself asking questions during Final tribal council instead of answering them.

Tony Vlachos is perhaps my favorite player to watch in terms of pure entertainment. In thirty seasons of Survivor, perhaps no one has played a game like Tony. He wasn't quite as in-control as Boston Rod in "Redemption Island" or Hatch in "Borneo," but he knew how to read his alliance members, knew when to oust them, and had a general handle on every event that went down in "Cagayan."
Rodney is no Tony.

However, he is trying to play a similar game it seems. Rod, much like Tony, is erratic and random in his words, his actions, and his makeshift alliances. He doesn't have as much of a read on people or as big of a hand in the way that every vote goes, but his ability to adapt to situations is similar. When Mike makes a gaffe by ousting Rod's alliance while people are reading their loved one letters, Rod jumps to action, swaying a crying Dan to his side almost immediately. Likewise, he is able to bond with Will and Shirin, someone who hated him before, in an impressive fashion. All of a sudden, Rod's alliance is less of a shadow council and more of an anti-Mike pact.

Can Rodney win the game? Probably not. He's a bit too much of a dick at times and could be easily cut by Tyler and Carolyn when needed, but his gameplay should be enough to make it pretty far and, at the very least, assure a return to the game at some point. He's still gotta buy his Maaa a Caaa.

These two have been rather under the radar all game. They seem smart and calculated, but due to their poor editing, we barely ever get a confessional from them. Tyler is my favorite out of the two of them, seeming most like he's in full game mode, unhindered by emotion. Their winner chances are squandered a bit due to this editing, but just based on the ways the votes are going and the idol in Carolyn's pocket, they seem to be playing excellent games. The two of them are the true shadow council; being at the crux of every vote without fully aligning with anyone. They could turn the tide in Mike's favor, Rod's favor, or attempt to drag along Dan and Will to score an easy win. However, the two are so ostensibly game savvy, that their biggest problem will be each other. Say we get to a final five of Tyler, Carolyn, Dan, Will, and Rodney. One of Tyler or Carolyn should be smart enough to oust the other. If Tyler truly is the game bot I see him as, he should cut Carolyn at final five, Rodney at final four, and proceed to win unanimously.

We've spoken at length about Will and Dan. The two of them seem like the most obvious goats of the game, and unless Dan can work some rather miraculous magic with his double vote, they'll stay that way. Let's hit on that for a moment though. The new twist in "Worlds Apart" is a double vote. It can be played up to (and including? not sure quite yet) the final five, and can be cast for two different players or the same player. This shit's powerful.

A lot of complaints have been given on the new advantage, but personally I think it spices things up. It's not overpowered like the Tyler Perry idol, and for once gives someone an offensive advantage rather than a defensive one. The immunity idol, redemption island, even Blood vs Water, are all defensive twists. All of them are to help players along, letting them hold some hidden pocket aces. The double vote however, is more like having pocket twos when a two hits on the flop. All of a sudden, you can submarine your opponents without having them realize it. As more survivors are cut from the show, your double vote becomes all the more powerful. While if anticipated and used incorrectly the double vote can be foiled, if Dan is smart enough to be effective, it should provide exactly what he needs to give himself an argument for winner.

Will, on the other hand, is not so lucky. He has no pocket aces, triple threes, or even a chance at a straight. Will's playing perpetual 7/2 splits, and unless he somehow gets 7, 7, 2 in the flop, he's screwed. Without some major damage control and big moves to prove himself worthy of a win, Mr. Sims is dead in the water.

And, speaking of dead in the water, let's talk about she who both the editors and this blog post have all but forgotten: Sierra Dawn Thomas. While unable to not notice looks-wise, her voice cannot be heard on this show. Maybe she's terrible at confessionals, maybe she's just a terrible player, or maybe both. After ten episodes of the show, I still don't really know where Sierra's alliances lie. She seemed to hate Rodney and Dan, but has voted with them every tribal council of the merge. She seems to like the No Collars and Mike, but she's helped break their entire alliance piece by piece. To say she has no shot at victory is an understatement. No one who wins the game gets this poor of an edit... not even Natalie White.

All in all, with only eight players remaining, I'm excited to see where we go from here. This season isn't quite "Heroes vs Villains" or "Cagayan" as Jeff has hyped it to be, but as long as the last episodes play out well, it'll certainly place somewhere in the top ten or fifteen seasons. Depending on how it goes, we'll see if it can move farther up the ladder.

7. Will Sims II - after his Shirin outburst, his terrible performance in challenges, and his lack of ever making promised sandwiches on day one, Will's chances are at about .01%. The only thing he gets to keep him out of the #8 slot is the fact that he's gotten a confessional once or twice.

Phew - 2200 words and I feel like I still have more to talk about. I'll postpone it for next time so as not to get too self indulgent. With Mad Men, Game of Thrones, Veep, Louie, Silicon Valley, Last Week Tonight, Turn, Daredevil, and The Comedians to keep watching, we've got a hell of a lot to talk about coming up!