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| Outvote, Outpredict, OutPress |
Well, it's officially Survivor Cambodia: Second Chances press day, and that means that it's time for official predictions before things get too close to date! Back in May, I made my endorsements for the vote, and although a couple of my favorites didn't make the cut (most notably Shane Powers,) the cast looks fantastic leading into the new season.
However, while I have personal preferences in terms of who should go far, this post will really be about predicting who has the best chance of actually winning the game. I'll go from 20 being the least likely to 1 being the most likely.
Let's see, after watching 30 seasons of Survivor, if my predictions will have any intellect to them when the season actually airs!
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The excitement begins September 23rd... almost as much
excitement as Joe Angilm's face. |
20. Joe Anglim
Joe, or Malcolm Lite as I like to call him, has absolutely zero shot at winning this game. He's a hulking physical specimen, capable of going on challenge tears, but anyone letting him get this far would have to be blind. The guy is ultra-likable, physically talented, but not quite smart enough to actually know how to maneuver his way through the game like a Malcolm. Though some of the older guys like Terry or Andrew will be good in challenges, Joe is too outward about it. He's too charming. He's the exact combination of factors that will prevent him from ever being first boot, but also from ever letting him go farther than the early merge at best. Chances are, he'll end up in almost an exact boot place as he was in Worlds Apart. However, as much as young female audiences may adore him, Joe Anglim will not win this game.
19. Abi-Maria Gomez
I loved watching Abi back in Philippines. From calling Mike Skupin an idiot and a moron to her feud with R.C. Saint-Amour, she was just fantastic television. However, although she made it to the final five, I really can't say she's an adept player. Physically, Abi isn't going to carry a team and her puzzle skills were never fantastic. However, her real challenge is going to be the social game. As much as I love seeing Abi yell at people, her sheer annoyance is going to make her an early boot or an endgame goat. Sadly, I just see no real road for Abi to win. She'll either be booted out pre-merge due to her personality and lacking in challenges, or brought deep into the game like last time, only to be booted in the finals or brought to the end for someone to win against.
18. Shirin Oskooi
Shirin falls into a similar boat as Abi. She's exceptionally bad in challenges, and her personality is one to get onto people's nerves. My best guess placement wise is that she'll be one of the first couple out of the game, but even should she make it farther, Shirin doesn't seem to be any great mastermind, and should she somehow make it to the finals, I doubt that she would be well-liked enough to actually win. Unless she has some kind of fantastic pregame alliance that will carry her to the end and then let her win due to jury hatred toward those around her, there's almost no way Shirin even makes it to the merge.
17. Terry Deitz
Who the hell would let Terry anywhere near the end? The guy is essentially Captain America aged up 20 years or a Tom Westman Lite. Even though he's now in his mid-fifties, Terry will still be a threat in the challenges, and someone to watch out for come the merge. I assume he'll make it past the early stages of the game due to his physical prowess, but even then, his always-the-leader attitude could clash with someone like Savage or any kind of Rob Cesternino-esq character who wants to gather the underdogs and cut off the head of the snake. Much as I like Terry, the rest of the cast would have to be a moron and an idiot to let him anywhere near that million.
16. Kass McQuillen
Kass is one of my very favorite people in this cast, but that's mostly due to the fact that she's one of the most villainous survivors ever to be on the show. Seriously, the amount of hate she received during Cagayan was legendary in itself. However, the same reason that I love Kass is the same reason she probably has zero chance to win the game. Yes, she's been reading How to Win Friends and Influence People, but the fear of Kass flipping or the hate for Kass should she make it to the end will probably prevent her from winning. A guy can hope, but sadly, I think Kass may be premerge.
15. Kelly Wiglesworth
Kelly, though for nostalgia purposes she's great, is kind of a lame character. She's very quiet and doesn't bring a whole lot to the table personality-wise. I don't see her as a favorite among fans or among her tribe-mates, and really the only thing ostensibly keeping her around would be her better than average challenge skills, something that'll just make her more of a target during the merge. Maybe she can get herself into a tight alliance that'll carry her far, but chances are Kelly isn't winning this thing.
14. Spencer Bledsoe
I don't see Spencer winning this thing. He's a threat socially, strategically, and a little bit physically, on top of the fact that people view him as a schemer and one to watch out for. Spencer's not the kind of guy that you decide to keep around to ax later, he's the one you're blindsiding early game. Additionally, though he's certainly not bad in challenges, there doesn't seem to be a lot of reason to keep him around that early for those purposes. Add that to his youth and you have a guy who, despite having skills, probably just won't be able to win.
13. Vytas Baskauskas
I like the Baskauskas brothers, especially for their cool names, but also because despite being young-ish handsome men, they have a bit of darkness and intrigue. And while this worked out for Aras winning the game with his exceptional challenge skills, Vytas is not the athlete his brother is. And sadly, when push comes to shove, he probably won't be the Survivor player either. I also don't see exactly where he fits in alliance wise. He probably wouldn't get along with the new-schoolers, but he's still a new-school player. He could always surprise me, but I'd be shocked to see Vytas win this game.
12. Ciera Eastin
Ciera is in the same category as Vytas, only female so a little less physically imposing. I just don't really understand where she fits into this puzzle. She could easily make it to the merge by flying under the radar, but she's no so strategically-savvy that she'll win this thing, and alliance wise I don't see what she'll be part of. Maybe with Monica due to her mother's connection? In addition, Ciera has the reputation of the girl who voted our her mom, making her a little bit of a snake inherently.
11. Woo Hwang
Woo, in my mind at least, made the single stupidest decision in Survivor history. He essentially made a decision where, if going one way, he wins, and in another, he loses. He chose to lose. He literally gave one million dollars to Tony Vlachos (not that I'm complaining). And while he's great TV and a charming guy, Woo just doesn't have the skillset required to win the game. He's a physical threat, and after his fun yet awful performance in Cagayan, there seems to be absolutely no way that Woo knows how to traverse the battlefield that will be this season.
10. Andrew Savage
Savage was on the receiving end of one of the worst twists in the show's history, however even while he was screwed by the Outcast twist, Savage probably couldn't win that season anyway. Savage must be the leader, whether or not it's actually strategically intelligent for him to be that way. And in an all-star season, that kind of thing will get him axed. There's a slim chance that should Savage make the merge with a tight alliance he could get to the end and win in a landslide, but sadly, in the tribal stage of the game, he will probably get on people's nerves and the king will die so that the country can live.
9. Kimmi Kappenberg
Kimmi was one of the earliest boots in Survivor: Australia due to her irritability. And, though she makes it into the top ten most likely winners here, it's for different reasons. In All-Star seasons, we generally see an under-the-radar winner (Amber;Sandra), and an older, more mature Kimmi fits this bill nicely. However, she will not be a physical asset, and should she revert back to her 15-years-ago ways, Kimmi will be premerge. I see either a deep run and potential win or a very very early boot for Kimmi Kappenberg.
8. Peih-Gee Law
I put PG in a similar way to Kimmi. She'll be better in challenges (especially if they're related to Sudoku,) but still not a real physical asset, and can get on people's nerves. However, she's a much better strategist, and should she make it late in the game, could probably get herself into the finals, where we see exactly how well she can argue her case to win. I am personally rooting for Peih-Gee, but as easily as she could be our winner, she could be our second or third boot.
7. Stephen Fishbach
As an RHAP fan and a fan of skinny New York Jews, I'm naturally a big fan of Stephen. He's a gifted strategist, a fun talker, and will probably be a Jonathan Penner-esq narrator of the season. The first time he played, he was beaten 7-0 by J.T. Thomas, one of the all-time great players. This time around, he has no best friend loyalty, and will probably play more cut-throat. I think should Stephen make the end again, he'll make a more convincing speech and probably win, but getting to that point will be difficult with the amount of other strategists. If his plans are foiled expect a big blindside for Mr. Fishbach, but if not, we may have a new legend.
6. Monica Padilla
Monica, best known for facing off against Russell Hantz, is an underdog to win this season. She's no challenge beast, but with her good looks, charm, and dealings with a Survivor devil, may have the tools to win the game. Should she stay under the radar and make enough little strategic decisions to allow herself to have something to take credit for, Monica could easily win the game. However, if this is sniffed out and targeted, Monica could easily be sent home at any portion of the game. I'm looking forward to seeing Monica play without the overwhelming presence of a Hantz and see if her game is as good as people in later days have given her credit for.
5. Keith Nale
I am a Nale Male, and I love Keith. I really hope he sticks to the plan and wins this season. And, with his physical ability, charm, and likability, could just have the skills required to win. Like Monica, if he can stay under the radar and play from the third or fourth spot in an alliance and then, unlike Monica, win a few clutch challenges, Keith could zoom ahead to a win. Just as easily, he could be seen as the subtle threat he is and taken out, but I see no way he's taken out premerge and no reason why he shouldn't get to the final five again.
4. Tasha Fox
Tasha is in a similar boat with Keith, only with a much better strategic mind. This is giving her the edge, although also makes her a more outward threat. Tasha will probably make it past the merge, but she has to get her guard up at that point. She's a bit of a challenge beast, be it physical or mental, making her a pretty set package. However, she will probably still be the second or third one targeted in an alliance, and if she can dodge the bullets coming at her side, Tasha may just dominate the game.
3. Jeremy Collins
Jeremy is one of the best candidates to win this game. Really, the only thing weighing him down is his big head getting to him. He's a leader, but not an overwhelming one, he's a physical powerhouse but not sooo outwardly, he's strategic, and he's likable. However, should he get too wrapped up in himself as he did in San Juan Del Sur, Jeremy may go home in a similar spot. If he gets to the end he almost certainly wins, and after an impressive showing his first time may just have the tools to get there. There's almost no way he's premerge, meaning that so long as he plays coolly, Jeremy has a pretty decent shot at this thing.
2. Kelley Wentworth
Kelley was very nearly number one on this list, as she basically fits every bill for an All-Star winner. She's incredibly attractive, meaning she'll have an edge on younger guys (and sometimes older ones too,) she's very strategic (listen to her RHAP interviews,) and she doesn't have an irritable father to watch out for this time. Kelley could be that perfect mix of under the radar and strategic that one needs. Also, since she's no slouch in challenges, especially mental ones, there's a good chance she's not targeted premerge. Kelley Wentworth could very easily be the third All-Star season female under the radar winner.
1. Jeff Varner
Jeff seems to have it all. He's not really strong or imposing but not bad in challenges either, he's extremely funny and likable, meaning people will want to work with him, and he has studied this game since his unceremonious boot in Australia. Now, fifteen years have passed and Jeff is older, wiser, and more ready to take this game by the throat. Add that to his promise of speaking Llama, and we have ourselves the most likely candidate to win the upcoming season of Survivor.
Agree? Disagree? I'm welcome to all feedback. Let's see if any of this holds true come September 23rd!
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| They're all Survivor'd up! But why the tanktop, Varner? |
Labels: Abi-Maria Gomez, Jeff Probst, Jeff Varner, Jeremy Collins, Joe Anglim, Kass McQuillen, Keith Nale, Kelley Wentworth, Peih-Gee Law, Spencer Bledsoe, Stephen Fishbach, Survivor: Second Chances, Terry Deitz