"No, no, look, you were ... you were just a turd out there, you know? You couldn't kick, and you couldn't run, you know? You were just... a turd." - George Bluth Sr, Arrested Development, S01E21 (whilst talking to Stephen Fish-Bawk)
I would like to apologize for the last couple of weeks. Due to extreme business on my end, I haven't had a chance to blog in a week or two! Thus, though I cannot wait to talk about the PHENOMENAL second season of
The Leftovers, the awesome second season of
Fargo, and all the other great TV on right now, I feel that to ease back into blogging, I should catch us all up on
Survivor! With five contestants out now, it's time to update the power rankings and analysis!
In the last bunch of weeks, we have seen the boots of Vytas, Shirin, Peih-Gee, Jeff, and now Monica. It's been interesting to watch how the strategy has been shaking out. Seeing as how we're only in the third fully all star season of the show, usual strategy would dictate an under-the-radar winner, a discarding of all the "big threats" early on, and a highly strategic season in an overall sense, be it the edit or the players. In
Second Chance, many of these factors exist, but it seems to be unlike all past returnee seasons.
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| She's in a better place now |
To begin, we start with the under-the-radar winner. In
All Stars, Amber Brkich came away victorious, a player who essentially stayed under the wings of Boston Rob, evaded the vote, and eventually won due to the fact that she hadn't angered people as much as others. In
Heroes vs Villains, Sandra Diaz Twine stayed under the radar, used the "anybody but me" strategy, and managed to get to the end with the duo of Russell and Parvati whom everyone was angry at. In
Cambodia though, I cannot see an under-the-radar winner. Power players like Jeremy Collins, Kelley Wentworth, and Tasha Fox are getting the major edits this season. Yes, we have players like Kelly Wigs and Keith who aren't getting a ton of screen time, but judging by their positions in the game, neither seems poised for victory. Much as I love Keith, I sadly don't see him coming out victorious, though he did lead his tribe to two wins in the previous episode! Thus, the people truly playing for the win AND getting the edit to make up for it becomes fewer and fewer each week, yet all candidates share an over the top amount of screentime, allowing for a rather different category of winner coming out of this season.
In the other all star seasons, we have also observed the early exits of "big threats," be it the ouster of winners in
All-Stars or the dispatching of Boston Rob, Tom Westman, and Cirie Fields premerge in
Heroes vs Villains. In
Cambodia though, with the amount of emotion attached to nearly every boot, nothing really seems aimed at just getting rid of threats. Vytas may have been this, but Abi-Maria's emotions dictated a good deal of the exits, while Kimmi Kappenberg's annoyance with Monica seems to have set up the most recent ouster. Jeff Varner is the only true exception to this rule, having been voted out for being the bigger threat strategically than Woo by Savage and Tasha. (Long Live King Varner.)
Thus, while watching the remainder of the season, it is truly up in the air for how boots will go. With loose canons like Abi and post-merge Kass coming into a merged tribe sooner rather than later, power can shift on a dime. Flips and flops will come out of every nook and cranny, and more likely than not, we'll also see the appearances of Kelley and Jeremy's idols, along with a few others to come.
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Wondering where Peih-Gee is now that
Pheobe has been ousted |
Another big question mark for me is the twists on the season. With idols being hidden at challenges and having different shapes and sizes, a tribe mitosis from 2 to 3 at eighteen, it begs the question of what else we'll see at this point! As the merge comes to close, it seems we'll merge back into two tribes at 14, before having an ostensible 9 person jury, meaning a merge at 12 would make the most sense. This means that no matter what the layout of the next few boots are, come merge almost every player will have played with everyone else. Whether they're from Bayon or Ta Keo, these players are interacting with each other heavily before they unite under a single flag. That leads to even more intrigue to alliances. Bayon and Ta Keo, the original tribes are pretty far removed at this point, while if another tribe swap occurs, NuBayon, NuTa Keo, and Angkor will also be relatively far removed. Alliances and flips could occur out of any corner.
Before we get to power rankings, I'd also like to take a moment to discuss those who, in the words of Andrew Savage, "are in a better place." According to the man who played college football (in case you hadn't heard,) and who has a
ridiculously hot wife (who is also a lawyer,) and hates Stephen Fish-Bawk, those who are voted out of the show apparently go to Heaven, not Ponderosa. Though I wasn't the biggest Shirin fan the first time around, I did appreciate the incredibly hard style of play she came into this season with. Though certainly not an amazing player, Shirin went out kicking, unfortunately becoming the J'Tia to Spencer's Spencer. Peih-Gee, I feel, got the short end of the stick in this season. Just as Shirin came into a storyline of history repeating itself, it seems Peih-Gee is the RC to Abi's Abi.
For Jeff Varner, I truly was shocked. All of the other boots seemed like plausible pre-mergers, but when Jeff went out fourth, a piece of the season died for me. Varner has to be the greatest premerge player of all time from a sheer entertainment standpoint. The guy is a non-factor to the overall season storyline, yet
still got more screentime than whoever the winner turns out to be. That speaks volumes about his excellency in confessional and around camp. Should we ever get a
Survivor: Third Time's the Charm, Varner should be a shoo-in. I don't know if he'll ever make it deep into the game, but by God will he be great television.
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| #ChaosKass #KumbayahKass |
As for Monica, I'm sad we didn't see more of her. She seemed to be playing hard, but due to her early exit, wasn't given enough screentime for us to see it. I doubt we'll be seeing her again on the show, but I for one am still happy she was voted back in. Maybe she isn't the Parvati 2.0 we had hoped for, but Monica still seems like a solid player, caught off guard by a blindside from Kimmi, a move that in my opinion, wasn't all that strong.
Without further adieu, let's get to power ratings! Below I will rank the players from 1-15, with one being the most likely to win the game and 15 being least likely. This is based on edit, past
Survivor play, and generally whom I think has a good shot at this thing. Also, note that this is who can win the game, not make a deep run.
This is huge... we needed this.
15. Abi-Maria Gomes
Boy oh boy - there haven't been many edits painting someone so negatively as Abi's. The only ones that rival it are Abi's original edit back in
Philippines and Jonny Fairplay's in
Pearl Islands. We could probably throw the cast of
Survivor: Thailand in there as well. Abi could very easily make it to the end of the game, but only as the goat of all goats.
14. Ciera Eastin
Other than the first episode, I'm not sure if Ciera has spoken this season. While being under the radar is a good thing in this show for the most part, not talking for three or four episodes in a row usually means you're not winning... unless you're Natalie White.
13. Joe Anglim
Poor Joe. He'll never get past this point in my power rankings. He just can't win. Especially after watching Mike Holloway be immune for six tribal councils in a row just last season, who would let this guy anywhere near the end? He'll just go on a run and win, thus making him a permanent early merge boot.
12. Keith Nale
I am a Nale Male. I always will be. But unfortunately, Keith has been a bit too invisible and a bit too surrounded by savvy players that he won't win. I expect him to make a deep run in the game, but final six or seven will probably be his resting place. That being said, I would absolutely love for Keith to become uber-strategic and win this thing.
11. Stephen Fishbach
Stephen's edit has been one of a narrator... only one who bumbles and screws things up constantly. As a gawky Northeastern Jew myself, this worries me should I ever make it onto the game. There's a good chance I become the second coming of Mr. Fishbach, making me a fan of his. All of that aside though, he's been just a bit too bumbling in the edit, a bit too Angkor-helping, and a bit too outgunned by the soon-to-be-re-assembled alpha alliance of Andrew Savage. Mr. Fish-Bawk may be in trouble.
10. Kelly Wiglesworth
I just heard, Kelly Wiglesworth is on this season! 15 years later and we STILL don't see the woman! Maybe it's that she's super boring or maybe it's that Kelly doesn't even bother talking, but Wiglesworth just doesn't seem to be featured on this season. In addition, she doesn't seem to understand the strategy of the game all that well, meaning that when she is voted out, she probably won't see it coming. Good to have the old-schoolers back, though.
9. Kimmi Kappenberg
We haven't seen much of Kimmi up to this point, but now that she's visible, it seems that she's just as emotional as when she played back in
Australia. This is almost sure to bring her a loss, but I suppose if she got there with the right combination of people and tried to play the Tina Wesson mother card she could maybe steal it.
8. Andrew Savage (who played college football and has a hot wife.)
Savage is playing a lot better than I thought he would coming into this season. However, due to his natural leadership and braggart qualities, I can't see him getting to the end. He's fantastic in challenges, especially for someone in their mid-fifties, but he will probably be strategically out-gunned by people like Jeremy and Tasha later in the game.
7. Terry Deitz
Terry, shockingly, is flying a little under the radar for being the embodiment of Captain America. He's gotten a super positive edit, and despite his mediocre strategic and social game, seems to be playing pretty well. When there are people like Joe in the game, suddenly Terry isn't the number one challenge threat, and he has a legitimate shot at this thing.
6. Woo Hwang
I'm surprised that Woo is all the way up here too. He still doesn't have a real grasp on the strategy of the game, but he could easily play a Woo-in-Cagayan type game and just make the right decision this time around. His emotionally driven edit, his challenge prowess that isn't quite as threatening as a Joe or Savage, and his likability could take Woo extremely far in this game.
5. Kass McQuillen
Kass is a changed woman. From chaos to Kumbayah, perhaps Kass truly has turned over a new leaf, skyrocketing her up in the ratings. She's extremely threatening as a strategic mind, but now as a social player as well. Perhaps she'll turn to the light side and win it this time. Equally as likely could be Kass turning on her alliance and causing some serious chaos come the merge, reverting back to the old Chaos Kass we know and love. Either option sounds awesome.
4. Spencer Bledsoe
Spencer, as Stephen Fishbach so aptly pointed out, is stealing the Cochran/Fishbach/Kenny from Gabon edit. Though it my opinion it makes no real context in real life, as Spencer isn't so awkward, it's the same nerdy guy gets to be a man on the island type story. The question is whether he'll be a runner up, a fifth placer, or a winner. Any of those options sound quite plausible.
3. Tasha Fox
First of all, let's hear it for Cagayan! My God! Killin it on this power ranking list! Tasha's edit is interesting, because although she seems to be set up as a villain this time around, she's also being credited with some pretty great strategic moves. She flipped a 2-4 deficit into a power position and seems to be the only one capable of wrangling Abi. Perhaps Tasha will come out of this whole thing as the victor.
2. Kelley Wentworth
The only season more impressive than Cagayan is San Juan Del Sur, which is interesting, because aside from the winner, I never thought of that season as one with many brilliant strategists. However, Kelley and Jeremy have really come away looking fantastic. With an idol in her pocket and the willingness to be flexible and trade sides, Kelley seems poised for a win. I would absolutely adore seeing the prophecy of Drew Christy come true.
1. Jeremy Collins
Jeremy is playing an outrageously smart game. He surrounds himself with the biggest threats, plays emotionally and under-the-radar, has an idol, and still seems to be calling the shots of nearly any move he's involved in. I could easily seeing Jeremy learn from his mistakes and take pieces of Natalie Anderson's game, ending with him as the victor. Plus, we could get an excellent final tribal council speech of Jeremy repeating his old lines of "come on, you gotta give it up for (insert player here)! I mean, come on. You gotta give it up!"
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| Our next winner? |
Whatever the case, I cannot wait to see what transpires next.
